Knives out for Nigel Farage - but here's why Reform UK leader doesn't care

The knives are out for Nigel Farage with claims of fantasy economics regarding Reform's public spending pledges. One of the benefits of riding high in the polls but not being in government is the ability to make commitments which can later be changed.

So far, Farage has pledged to reinstate the winter fuel payment cut by Labour as well as scrap the two-child benefit cap, among other promises. Opportunistic or not, Reform is parking its tanks on Labour's lawn. Farage can also justify any U-turns given changed circumstances, such as the increased cost of living. Yet already his critics are lining up.

For example, the Financial Times claims economists believe Farage's pledge to increase the personal allowance from £12,570 to £20,000 would cost £50-80bn.

The Reform boss says savings would come from scrapping net zero targets, foreign aid, quangos and other bloated areas of the state.

Yet, on net zero targets - saving nearly £50bn by some estimates - critics claim most of the investment will be private sector and thus government savings will be minimal.

At this stage, the details matter less than the mood music. At a time when cynicism about the two main parties is at an all-time high, the fact Farage's commitments may need to change is unlikely to put his supporters off.

This is the vibes era, where voters crave authenticity, something Farage has in spades. Voters - at this stage - are likely to ask: so what if his pledges need amending so long as a man perceived to be on their side is in Downing Street?

But while Tory trash-talk is unlikely to nudge Farage off course, longer term Reform needs to demonstrate serious financial credibility. As the general election nears, voters will want to see plans are fully costed rather than merely aspirational.

Having taken control of several council authorities and their budgets, Reform's record in local government will be held up as either evidence of sound management or recklessness come the next election, slated for 2029.

Reform benefits from broad scepticism towards both main parties, alongside widespread support for Reform's broad ideas on immigration, crime and nationhood.

For what it's worth I believe Reform's move away from Thatcherism redux is genuine. The public wants pragmatic patriotism whether in the form of strong borders, pro-business policies or elements of welfarism. Claims of flip-flopping are unlikely to cut through.

Farage can then afford broad brushstrokes for now so long as they indicate a strong direction of travel. Come 2029 however and the public will need to trust Reform's numbers roughly add up and a team is ready to run the UK better than either the Conservatives or Labour.